The Shelf · Signal Library
No. 199

LLMs don't know what they know — financial backtests can't be certified by self-report

StrongEvidence grade
Nov 5, 2026Shelved
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on 2,226 dated U.S. facts, GPT-5 answered 76% correctly but claimed to know only 38%, and answered 61% of the facts it said it did not know; a declared historical date removed most knowledge claims while leaving accuracy unchanged.

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Cite as — Sawdust Shelf v2026-11-05.3 · No. 199 · fingerprint sha256:5e3099199cc2…
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