The Shelf · Signal Library
No. 189

False reassurance in LLM severe-weather guidance, measured against real NWS alerts

StrongEvidence grade
Nov 4, 2026Shelved
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replaying 117 frozen cases through a Claude-based preparedness pipeline: a blind neutral prompt falsely reassured in 37.7% of alert cases, and telling the model to disclose its blind spot made it worse (44.9%), while the production pipeline with real alert access scored 0.0% (0/66). Alert data removed the failure; a disclosure instruction did not.

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Cite as — Sawdust Shelf v2026-11-05.3 · No. 189 · fingerprint sha256:0955b4026084…
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